 | Researchers discuss who’s most likely to pursue “the bomb” |
by Michelle Hu, Energy Institute Writer
Nuclear energy and political science modelers gathered together last Tuesday at the UW campus to discuss models that predict how likely a nation is to pursue nuclear weapons. Dr. Clifford Singer of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Dr. Andrew Kydd of University of Wisconsin at Madison, and Dr. Man-Sung Yim of North Carolina State University each presented in the public panel discussion titled, “Who Will be the Next to Pursue the Nuclear Bomb?”
Each speaker presented his own views on which models were the most useful and accurate. Using Iran and North Korea as examples, Dr. Singer asserted that the “historical narrative” is critical in determining if the quantitative models are accurate. Simply put, a country is more likely to pursue nuclear weapons technology if it has experienced recent conflict resulting in massive casualties. According to Dr. Kydd, statistical models are highly variable and require complex inputs that are themselves quite variable. Meanwhile, Dr. Yim claims that technology, financial capability and political motivation are the integral components that determine whether a country can and will attempt to develop nuclear technology. If one or more components are not sufficiently met, he says, pursuing and acquiring nuclear technology will not be possible.
All the presenters agreed that nuclear technology is essential as an alternative energy source in the future. International security in the form of recessed deterrence (acquiring the capability to build nuclear weapons without actually building them) and cheap, independent energy sources are strong motivations for nations to explore nuclear technology. As climate change is addressed more fully and the world realizes that there is a limited pool of resources, they say interest in and pursuit of nuclear technology will significantly increase.
